DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$174.20 - $630.39	$551.30
Multi-Stage	$82.13 - $89.73	$85.86
Blended Fair Value	$318.58
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	616.07%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$174.20	$551.30	$630.39
Upside / Downside	291.54%	1,139.15%	1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,930.13	4,976.86	5,023.59
Year 2 PV (M)	5,099.26	5,196.38	5,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)	5,262.51	5,413.58	5,567.51
Year 4 PV (M)	5,420.04	5,628.48	5,842.87
Year 5 PV (M)	5,571.96	5,841.08	6,120.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,155.46	153,214.82	160,544.36
Equity Value (M)	172,439.35	180,271.20	188,393.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$82.13	$85.86	$89.73
Upside / Downside	84.61%	92.99%	101.69%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
017810.KS	Pulmuone Co., Ltd.	2.55%	$331.61	65.57%
023160.KQ	Tae Kwang Corporation	2.55%	$535.13	21.10%
3152.TWO	Advanced Ceramic X Corporation	2.55%	$3.66	36.41%
600415.SS	Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd.	2.55%	$0.41	53.66%
601808.SS	China Oilfield Services Limited	2.55%	$0.36	43.75%
7606.T	United Arrows Ltd.	2.55%	$62.63	43.42%
CYRE3.SA	Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participações	2.55%	$0.61	12.29%
JUNGH.SW	Jungheinrich AG	2.55%	$0.79	22.62%
RENT3.SA	Localiza Rent a Car S.A.	2.55%	$1.11	66.67%
002380.KS	KCC Corporation	2.54%	$10,000.23	6.25%
1527.HK	Zhejiang Tengy Environmental Technology Co., Ltd	2.54%	$0.05	4.95%
5212.KL	Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust	2.54%	$0.05	39.63%
5489.TWO	DynaColor, Inc.	2.54%	$1.02	50.42%
600273.SS	Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd.	2.54%	$0.22	28.18%
600724.SS	Ningbo Fuda Company Limited	2.54%	$0.15	96.79%
7505.T	Fuso Dentsu Co., Ltd.	2.54%	$48.50	22.36%
8850.T	Starts Corporation Inc.	2.54%	$121.52	25.36%
BLAU3.SA	Blau Farmacêutica S.A.	2.54%	$0.35	19.81%
2367.HK	Giant Biogene Holding Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.87	22.55%
2701.TW	Wan Hwa Enterprise Company Ltd.	2.53%	$0.28	52.89%
600963.SS	Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.12	48.95%
603697.SS	YouYou Foods Co., Ltd.	2.53%	$0.31	63.16%
CK-R.BK	CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited	2.53%	$0.30	25.56%
SCHO.CO	Aktieselskabet Schouw & Co.	2.53%	$16.81	42.51%
003006.SZ	Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.55	80.44%
5191.T	Sumitomo Riko Company Limited	2.52%	$66.01	23.54%
600406.SS	NARI Technology Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.57	56.63%
600909.SS	Huaan Securities Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.17	38.30%
603811.SS	Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.	2.52%	$0.26	37.15%
BESALCO.SN	Besalco S.A.	2.52%	$30.59	34.76%
000019.SZ	Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$0.17	62.11%
094820.KQ	Iljin Power Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$320.01	48.44%
0QVR.L	Scandi Standard AB (publ)	2.51%	$2.49	52.58%
4041.T	Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$90.77	32.02%
600056.SS	China Meheco Group Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$0.26	71.36%
605169.SS	Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$0.33	91.06%
6691.TW	Yankey Engineering Co., Ltd.	2.51%	$13.92	62.80%
7483.T	Doshisha Co.,Ltd.	2.51%	$82.93	37.87%
GPSC-R.BK	Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited	2.51%	$0.90	51.48%
HOVE.CO	Hove A/S	2.51%	$0.14	34.71%
NOLA-B.ST	Nolato AB (publ)	2.51%	$1.50	51.20%
0QNH.L	Huber+Suhner AG	2.50%	$3.61	49.61%
100840.KS	SNT Energy Co., Ltd.	2.50%	$899.87	27.57%
138490.KS	Kolon Plastics, Inc.	2.50%	$200.40	17.45%
2612.T	Kadoya Sesame Mills Incorporated	2.50%	$99.85	34.73%
603112.SS	Shanxi Huaxiang Group Co., Ltd.	2.50%	$0.43	43.19%
603766.SS	Loncin Motor Co., Ltd.	2.50%	$0.40	45.87%
ISCTR.IS	Türkiye Is Bankasi A.S.	2.50%	$0.36	16.38%
002539.SZ	Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd.	2.49%	$0.29	41.75%
2542.TW	Highwealth Construction Corp.	2.49%	$0.98	39.34%

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener