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Definitive Analysis

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Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,357.12 - $15,416.39$8,394.16
Multi-Stage$5,789.18 - $6,332.13$6,055.63
Blended Fair Value$7,224.90
Current Price$2,780.00
Upside159.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.32%8.51%178.50167.60149.97126.00113.03109.22134.1397.8497.5673.88
YoY Growth--6.50%11.76%19.02%11.48%3.49%-18.57%37.09%0.29%32.04%-6.31%
Dividend Yield--7.41%4.77%3.69%2.75%3.30%3.46%3.41%2.72%2.36%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,758,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,047,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)711,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,351,600.002,719,750.001,631,850.00
Cash Retained (M)711,000.00711,000.00711,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,351,600.00-2,719,750.00-1,631,850.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,640,600.00-2,008,750.00-920,850.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
LTM Dividend per Share212.46212.46212.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend175.71192.19203.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$5,357.12$8,394.16$15,416.39
Upside / Downside92.70%201.95%454.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,758,000.0022,687,996.9423,657,744.5224,668,941.7825,723,360.4126,822,847.7927,627,533.22
Payout Ratio96.73%95.39%94.04%92.69%91.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,047,000.0021,641,124.9222,247,587.2422,866,356.2023,497,375.8524,140,563.0125,555,468.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)20,094,930.2820,289,508.5620,484,086.83
Year 2 PV (M)19,182,104.9219,555,382.2919,932,256.66
Year 3 PV (M)18,306,991.5018,843,954.7319,391,316.41
Year 4 PV (M)17,468,115.3518,154,577.5518,861,076.14
Year 5 PV (M)16,664,057.4417,486,620.0718,341,349.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)481,770,481.51505,551,388.18530,262,247.66
Equity Value (M)573,486,681.01599,881,431.37627,272,332.73
Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
Fair Value$5,789.18$6,055.63$6,332.13
Upside / Downside108.24%117.83%127.77%

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