Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PNM Resources, Inc. (PNM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.12 - $387.53$363.17
Multi-Stage$59.59 - $65.18$62.33
Blended Fair Value$212.75
Current Price$40.70
Upside422.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.49%9.91%1.691.401.321.251.091.030.940.860.780.71
YoY Growth--20.75%5.73%6.08%14.69%6.00%9.37%9.22%10.15%9.92%8.04%
Dividend Yield--4.15%3.74%2.72%2.61%2.22%2.70%2.01%2.24%2.11%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.3322.0813.25
Cash Retained (M)74.8174.8174.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.33-22.08-13.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4852.7361.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.6690.6690.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.580.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.580.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$182.12$363.17$387.53
Upside / Downside347.46%792.32%852.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.66188.14200.37213.39227.26242.04249.30
Payout Ratio57.65%64.12%70.59%77.06%83.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.85120.64141.44164.44189.83217.83230.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.31113.38114.44
Year 2 PV (M)122.60124.93127.29
Year 3 PV (M)132.70136.51140.39
Year 4 PV (M)142.62148.10153.74
Year 5 PV (M)152.36159.72167.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,739.524,968.445,206.12
Equity Value (M)5,402.105,651.075,909.34
Shares Outstanding (M)90.6690.6690.66
Fair Value$59.59$62.33$65.18
Upside / Downside46.41%53.15%60.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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