Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fastenal Company (FAST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.00 - $87.59$44.92
Multi-Stage$20.09 - $21.90$20.98
Blended Fair Value$32.95
Current Price$49.04
Upside-32.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.37%11.66%0.780.880.620.560.700.430.380.320.300.28
YoY Growth---12.15%42.95%10.50%-19.88%61.13%12.83%19.72%6.49%5.96%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.31%2.29%1.88%2.78%2.77%2.34%2.35%2.34%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,226.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.32153.3392.00
Cash Retained (M)251.50251.50251.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.32-153.33-92.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1898.18159.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$28.00$44.92$87.59
Upside / Downside-42.90%-8.41%78.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,226.601,303.761,385.761,472.931,565.581,664.061,713.98
Payout Ratio79.50%81.60%83.70%85.80%87.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.101,063.821,159.851,263.751,376.131,497.651,585.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)971.27980.49989.72
Year 2 PV (M)966.81985.271,003.89
Year 3 PV (M)961.77989.441,017.63
Year 4 PV (M)956.18993.031,030.93
Year 5 PV (M)950.08996.061,043.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,290.8219,176.0720,095.26
Equity Value (M)23,096.9424,120.3625,181.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
Fair Value$20.09$20.98$21.90
Upside / Downside-59.04%-57.23%-55.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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