Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Deutsche Post AG (DHL.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.39 - $79.92$59.25
Multi-Stage$39.41 - $42.91$41.13
Blended Fair Value$50.19
Current Price$37.94
Upside32.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.86%8.40%1.881.911.911.451.231.231.221.100.890.89
YoY Growth---1.63%0.00%31.80%17.65%0.21%0.71%10.94%23.66%-0.29%6.40%
Dividend Yield--4.76%4.87%4.43%3.33%2.64%4.96%4.14%3.10%2.77%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,123.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,415.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)707.60442.25265.35
Cash Retained (M)1,415.001,415.001,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-707.60-442.25-265.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)707.40972.751,149.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate10.62%10.62%10.62%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$44.39$59.25$79.92
Upside / Downside17.01%56.18%110.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,538.003,744.243,962.514,193.504,437.954,696.664,837.56
Payout Ratio60.01%66.00%72.00%78.00%84.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,123.002,471.372,853.143,271.023,727.934,226.994,474.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.62%10.62%10.62%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)2,213.042,234.152,255.26
Year 2 PV (M)2,287.852,331.712,375.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,348.772,416.632,485.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,397.042,489.832,585.28
Year 5 PV (M)2,433.842,552.162,675.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,822.2935,466.5737,174.19
Equity Value (M)45,502.8347,491.0449,551.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
Fair Value$39.41$41.13$42.91
Upside / Downside3.87%8.41%13.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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