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Definitive Analysis

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Covivio Hotels (COVH.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.68 - $354.35$163.81
Multi-Stage$41.71 - $45.51$43.58
Blended Fair Value$103.69
Current Price$22.80
Upside354.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS60.12%34.48%12.951.240.650.230.021.231.110.800.770.77
YoY Growth--940.12%92.31%179.43%1,168.24%-98.52%11.11%38.83%3.28%0.00%15.39%
Dividend Yield--62.24%7.59%4.37%1.32%0.10%4.36%4.60%2.82%3.08%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0233.1419.88
Cash Retained (M)33.0933.0933.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.02-33.14-19.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-19.93-0.0513.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)148.78148.78148.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.000.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.561.561.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.000.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.68$163.81$354.35
Upside / Downside227.55%618.46%1,454.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.09282.32300.67320.21341.03363.19374.09
Payout Ratio87.52%88.02%88.51%89.01%89.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.00248.48266.13285.01305.23326.87346.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)228.95231.12233.29
Year 2 PV (M)225.93230.23234.57
Year 3 PV (M)222.94229.34235.86
Year 4 PV (M)219.98228.44237.14
Year 5 PV (M)217.06227.54238.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,090.845,336.735,592.03
Equity Value (M)6,205.696,483.396,771.32
Shares Outstanding (M)148.78148.78148.78
Fair Value$41.71$43.58$45.51
Upside / Downside82.94%91.13%99.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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