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Definitive Analysis

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BHP Group Limited (BHP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.99 - $53.93$43.07
Multi-Stage$63.61 - $69.75$66.62
Blended Fair Value$54.85
Current Price$24.18
Upside126.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.42%-0.15%1.261.512.613.511.561.352.241.030.580.81
YoY Growth---16.57%-42.15%-25.67%125.93%14.91%-39.66%118.30%78.71%-29.27%-36.44%
Dividend Yield--5.21%5.24%8.72%12.34%4.80%6.15%8.68%4.60%3.61%6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,916.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,078.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,838.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,383.202,114.501,268.70
Cash Retained (M)2,838.002,838.002,838.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,383.20-2,114.50-1,268.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-545.20723.501,569.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,080.005,080.005,080.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.140.31
LTM Dividend per Share2.772.772.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.140.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$33.99$43.07$53.93
Upside / Downside40.55%78.14%123.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,916.0016,982.6017,049.4617,116.5917,183.9817,251.6417,769.18
Payout Ratio83.22%84.58%85.93%87.29%88.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,078.0014,363.6114,651.2514,940.9315,232.6715,526.4716,436.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)13,267.3213,400.8113,534.29
Year 2 PV (M)12,500.1212,752.9113,008.24
Year 3 PV (M)11,774.3512,133.3212,499.52
Year 4 PV (M)11,088.0411,541.0512,007.80
Year 5 PV (M)10,439.3010,975.1311,532.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)264,087.09277,642.01291,747.89
Equity Value (M)323,156.23338,445.23354,330.46
Shares Outstanding (M)5,080.005,080.005,080.00
Fair Value$63.61$66.62$69.75
Upside / Downside163.08%175.53%188.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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