Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. (7282.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60,060.74 - $70,779.24$66,322.38
Multi-Stage$46,168.90 - $50,732.69$48,407.62
Blended Fair Value$57,365.00
Current Price$3,682.00
Upside1,457.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.85%6.11%106.8869.2655.9971.3355.9661.0759.0056.9953.9456.99
YoY Growth--54.31%23.71%-21.51%27.46%-8.36%3.51%3.52%5.66%-5.35%-3.46%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.42%2.06%3.33%2.05%2.72%2.74%2.03%2.01%3.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,852.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,346.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,506.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,170.405,731.503,438.90
Cash Retained (M)32,506.0032,506.0032,506.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,170.40-5,731.50-3,438.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,335.6026,774.5029,067.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
LTM Dividend per Share104.94104.94104.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend288.44315.48333.50
WACC / Discount Rate-1.25%-1.25%-1.25%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$60,060.74$66,322.38$70,779.24
Upside / Downside1,531.20%1,701.26%1,822.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,852.0048,197.2350,662.4253,253.6955,977.5158,840.6460,605.86
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,346.0019,898.4027,086.1634,957.1543,562.4552,956.5756,060.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.25%-1.25%-1.25%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)19,958.4720,150.1620,341.86
Year 2 PV (M)27,249.9527,775.9228,306.92
Year 3 PV (M)35,274.6936,300.9137,346.83
Year 4 PV (M)44,090.8645,809.3547,577.60
Year 5 PV (M)53,760.7556,392.6259,126.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,691,172.225,969,785.496,259,205.15
Equity Value (M)5,871,506.946,156,214.456,451,904.94
Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
Fair Value$46,168.90$48,407.62$50,732.69
Upside / Downside1,153.91%1,214.71%1,277.86%

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