Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings, Inc. (6183.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,015.07 - $1,550.53$1,265.54
Multi-Stage$1,422.00 - $1,555.72$1,487.61
Blended Fair Value$1,376.58
Current Price$1,247.00
Upside10.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.01%0.00%59.7859.7759.8044.8141.8338.8435.8735.8235.400.00
YoY Growth--0.02%-0.05%33.43%7.12%7.71%8.27%0.15%1.19%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.79%3.71%4.33%3.13%2.56%2.86%2.29%1.92%3.35%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,172.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,414.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,758.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,634.401,021.50612.90
Cash Retained (M)3,758.003,758.003,758.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,634.40-1,021.50-612.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,123.602,736.503,145.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.8273.8273.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.7737.0742.61
LTM Dividend per Share59.8059.8059.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.7737.0742.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.5696.87102.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$1,015.07$1,265.54$1,550.53
Upside / Downside-18.60%1.49%24.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,172.008,298.088,426.108,556.108,688.108,822.149,086.81
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.61%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,414.005,079.335,764.156,468.887,193.997,939.938,405.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)4,600.754,646.514,692.26
Year 2 PV (M)4,729.104,823.634,919.11
Year 3 PV (M)4,807.224,952.095,099.84
Year 4 PV (M)4,842.355,037.895,239.29
Year 5 PV (M)4,840.885,086.455,341.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,148.1285,264.7089,546.67
Equity Value (M)104,968.41109,811.27114,839.07
Shares Outstanding (M)73.8273.8273.82
Fair Value$1,422.00$1,487.61$1,555.72
Upside / Downside14.03%19.30%24.76%

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