Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Changzhou Tenglong AutoPartsCo.,Ltd. (603158.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.89 - $45.90$17.42
Multi-Stage$6.25 - $6.82$6.53
Blended Fair Value$11.98
Current Price$10.88
Upside10.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.88%15.85%0.220.150.130.160.110.090.160.070.060.00
YoY Growth--45.89%10.90%-16.98%51.61%16.57%-43.56%122.59%30.96%2,021.55%-94.74%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.77%1.72%2.16%1.23%1.03%1.78%0.80%0.39%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2419.5311.72
Cash Retained (M)57.3357.3357.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.24-19.53-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.0937.8045.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.89$17.42$45.90
Upside / Downside-9.06%60.14%321.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.21166.37177.18188.70200.97214.03220.45
Payout Ratio63.30%68.64%73.98%79.32%84.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.89114.20131.08149.68170.14192.63203.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.57105.56106.55
Year 2 PV (M)109.91112.01114.12
Year 3 PV (M)114.92118.22121.59
Year 4 PV (M)119.62124.22128.95
Year 5 PV (M)124.01130.00136.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,533.992,656.382,783.46
Equity Value (M)3,107.033,246.403,390.90
Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
Fair Value$6.25$6.53$6.82
Upside / Downside-42.55%-39.97%-37.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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