Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited (601668.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.79 - $214.11$200.65
Multi-Stage$32.70 - $35.77$34.20
Blended Fair Value$117.43
Current Price$5.45
Upside2,054.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.15%10.30%1.060.260.250.220.190.170.630.600.560.46
YoY Growth--314.32%1.06%16.42%16.01%10.08%-73.02%5.82%6.50%20.37%17.00%
Dividend Yield--20.12%4.85%4.36%3.99%3.61%3.23%10.10%9.62%8.51%11.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44,666.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,474.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,191.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,933.295,583.313,349.98
Cash Retained (M)20,191.6320,191.6320,191.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,933.29-5,583.31-3,349.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,258.3414,608.3216,841.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41,488.8041,488.8041,488.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.350.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.350.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.79$200.65$214.11
Upside / Downside1,712.69%3,581.64%3,828.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44,666.4447,569.7650,661.7953,954.8157,461.8761,196.8963,032.80
Payout Ratio54.79%61.84%68.88%75.92%82.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,474.8129,415.1034,894.2140,961.3347,669.7555,077.2058,305.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27,381.1027,640.6427,900.17
Year 2 PV (M)30,235.3230,811.2231,392.55
Year 3 PV (M)33,038.1633,986.5734,952.95
Year 4 PV (M)35,790.3037,166.6938,582.41
Year 5 PV (M)38,492.3940,351.5942,281.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,191,561.141,249,113.991,308,869.52
Equity Value (M)1,356,498.411,419,070.691,483,979.54
Shares Outstanding (M)41,488.8041,488.8041,488.80
Fair Value$32.70$34.20$35.77
Upside / Downside499.92%527.59%556.30%

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