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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. (601328.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.89 - $242.90$193.34
Multi-Stage$31.72 - $34.63$33.15
Blended Fair Value$113.24
Current Price$6.72
Upside1,585.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.55%10.41%0.670.650.630.570.360.450.310.410.320.26
YoY Growth--3.56%2.96%9.97%60.17%-19.76%45.18%-25.61%28.74%24.21%3.49%
Dividend Yield--9.02%10.01%12.33%11.21%7.22%8.64%4.86%6.67%5.14%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,890.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87,512.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,378.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,978.0011,861.257,116.75
Cash Retained (M)7,378.007,378.007,378.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,978.00-11,861.25-7,116.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11,600.00-4,483.25261.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.89$193.34$242.90
Upside / Downside865.55%2,777.04%3,514.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,890.00101,057.85107,626.61114,622.34122,072.79130,007.52133,907.75
Payout Ratio92.22%91.78%91.33%90.89%90.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87,512.0092,750.6498,300.56104,180.10110,408.66117,006.77123,864.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85,797.8086,611.0587,424.30
Year 2 PV (M)84,115.2085,717.3687,334.64
Year 3 PV (M)82,463.6584,830.8887,242.99
Year 4 PV (M)80,842.5883,951.5687,149.36
Year 5 PV (M)79,251.4683,079.3487,053.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,051,917.272,151,025.642,253,927.13
Equity Value (M)2,464,387.972,575,215.832,690,132.12
Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
Fair Value$31.72$33.15$34.63
Upside / Downside372.02%393.25%415.26%

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