Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (600426.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.87 - $123.59$63.80
Multi-Stage$26.83 - $29.29$28.04
Blended Fair Value$45.92
Current Price$26.61
Upside72.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.19%18.40%1.040.910.860.290.320.240.230.160.130.19
YoY Growth--13.87%6.39%196.58%-10.21%34.89%6.20%38.64%27.97%-33.19%-1.18%
Dividend Yield--4.71%3.40%2.44%0.89%1.12%1.98%1.80%1.33%1.61%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,227.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,491.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,735.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645.52403.45242.07
Cash Retained (M)1,735.671,735.671,735.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-645.52-403.45-242.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,090.151,332.221,493.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.87$63.80$123.59
Upside / Downside49.84%139.75%364.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,227.623,437.413,660.843,898.804,152.224,422.124,554.78
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,491.951,889.872,333.232,826.233,373.473,979.904,213.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,721.871,738.191,754.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,936.841,973.732,010.97
Year 3 PV (M)2,137.522,198.892,261.41
Year 4 PV (M)2,324.602,414.002,505.95
Year 5 PV (M)2,498.692,619.372,744.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,191.9348,423.0250,739.49
Equity Value (M)56,811.4459,367.1962,017.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
Fair Value$26.83$28.04$29.29
Upside / Downside0.82%5.36%10.06%

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