Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.,Ltd (600039.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.02 - $175.57$164.54
Multi-Stage$102.91 - $112.92$107.82
Blended Fair Value$136.18
Current Price$8.09
Upside1,583.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.20%55.15%0.700.650.260.140.030.020.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--7.71%150.86%89.16%360.49%43.61%0.00%19.56%0.00%0.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--8.77%8.32%2.61%1.83%0.68%0.75%0.73%0.64%0.48%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,736.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,996.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,740.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,547.35967.09580.26
Cash Retained (M)4,740.364,740.364,740.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,547.35-967.09-580.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,193.013,773.264,160.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,763.648,763.648,763.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$149.02$164.54$175.57
Upside / Downside1,742.04%1,933.82%2,070.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,736.768,239.658,775.239,345.619,953.0810,600.0310,918.03
Payout Ratio38.73%48.98%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,996.404,036.075,198.246,494.437,937.179,540.0310,099.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,919.063,956.203,993.35
Year 2 PV (M)4,901.194,994.555,088.78
Year 3 PV (M)5,945.806,116.486,290.40
Year 4 PV (M)7,055.987,327.337,606.44
Year 5 PV (M)8,235.018,632.779,045.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)871,767.54913,874.24957,592.46
Equity Value (M)901,824.58944,901.57989,617.18
Shares Outstanding (M)8,763.648,763.648,763.64
Fair Value$102.91$107.82$112.92
Upside / Downside1,172.00%1,232.76%1,295.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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