Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.04 - $69.67$40.97
Multi-Stage$18.93 - $20.67$19.79
Blended Fair Value$30.38
Current Price$18.61
Upside63.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.17%10.80%0.330.310.260.341.110.670.350.650.600.11
YoY Growth--5.79%21.55%-25.06%-68.94%64.88%93.84%-46.53%8.71%428.85%-5.19%
Dividend Yield--1.99%1.62%1.26%1.56%6.56%2.50%0.97%3.74%2.62%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,077.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,731.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,346.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,615.571,009.73605.84
Cash Retained (M)5,346.875,346.875,346.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,615.57-1,009.73-605.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,731.304,337.144,741.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,842.626,842.626,842.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Fair Value$27.04$40.97$69.67
Upside / Downside45.28%120.16%274.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,077.878,601.109,158.219,751.4210,383.0411,055.5811,387.25
Payout Ratio33.81%45.05%56.29%67.52%78.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,731.003,874.515,154.716,584.498,177.869,950.0210,533.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)3,516.003,549.333,582.67
Year 2 PV (M)4,244.904,325.774,407.40
Year 3 PV (M)4,920.585,061.875,205.83
Year 4 PV (M)5,545.825,759.155,978.57
Year 5 PV (M)6,123.256,419.076,726.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,200.27110,282.60115,559.48
Equity Value (M)129,550.83135,397.79141,460.17
Shares Outstanding (M)6,842.626,842.626,842.62
Fair Value$18.93$19.79$20.67
Upside / Downside1.74%6.33%11.09%

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