Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kadoya Sesame Mills Incorporated (2612.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,235.75 - $5,285.59$4,151.50
Multi-Stage$4,418.20 - $4,843.02$4,626.59
Blended Fair Value$4,389.05
Current Price$3,770.00
Upside16.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.56%6.98%100.07100.18109.9684.97110.07119.95149.83117.3561.1740.75
YoY Growth---0.11%-8.89%29.41%-22.80%-8.24%-19.94%27.69%91.83%50.13%-20.04%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.74%3.16%2.42%2.73%3.20%3.77%1.94%1.20%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,646.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)919.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,727.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)529.20330.75198.45
Cash Retained (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-529.20-330.75-198.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,197.801,396.251,528.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.209.209.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.15151.71166.08
LTM Dividend per Share99.8599.8599.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.15151.71166.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend230.00251.56265.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate1.15%2.15%3.15%
Fair Value$3,235.75$4,151.50$5,285.59
Upside / Downside-14.17%10.12%40.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,646.002,702.922,761.072,820.472,881.152,943.143,031.43
Payout Ratio34.73%45.79%56.84%67.89%78.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)919.001,237.541,569.371,914.902,274.562,648.822,804.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate1.15%2.15%3.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,131.081,142.261,153.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,310.971,337.021,363.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,462.001,505.791,550.44
Year 4 PV (M)1,587.201,650.911,716.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,689.361,774.531,863.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,482.1935,170.3036,925.81
Equity Value (M)40,662.8042,580.8044,572.64
Shares Outstanding (M)9.209.209.20
Fair Value$4,418.20$4,626.59$4,843.02
Upside / Downside17.19%22.72%28.46%

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