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Definitive Analysis

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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (2319.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.33 - $196.07$64.53
Multi-Stage$30.06 - $32.88$31.44
Blended Fair Value$47.99
Current Price$14.69
Upside226.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.10%17.27%0.490.400.380.270.180.180.120.090.140.15
YoY Growth--21.18%5.40%40.68%51.56%-0.33%46.84%40.02%-37.61%-5.54%49.62%
Dividend Yield--2.97%2.24%1.22%0.76%0.46%0.64%0.57%0.45%1.05%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,938.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,915.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)787.75492.34295.41
Cash Retained (M)23.1723.1723.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-787.75-492.34-295.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-764.59-469.18-272.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,935.183,935.183,935.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$34.33$64.53$196.07
Upside / Downside133.66%339.30%1,234.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,938.754,131.224,333.084,544.824,766.904,999.835,149.82
Payout Ratio99.41%97.53%95.65%93.76%91.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,915.594,029.154,144.474,261.444,379.944,499.844,763.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,753.883,790.013,826.14
Year 2 PV (M)3,597.503,667.093,737.35
Year 3 PV (M)3,446.313,546.793,649.21
Year 4 PV (M)3,300.143,429.053,561.70
Year 5 PV (M)3,158.843,313.833,474.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)101,031.41105,988.51111,138.32
Equity Value (M)118,288.07123,735.29129,387.57
Shares Outstanding (M)3,935.183,935.183,935.18
Fair Value$30.06$31.44$32.88
Upside / Downside104.62%114.05%123.82%

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