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Definitive Analysis

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C&D International Investment Group Limited (1908.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$544.86 - $892.39$836.30
Multi-Stage$143.60 - $157.28$150.31
Blended Fair Value$493.31
Current Price$14.49
Upside3,304.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.73%65.32%0.330.200.070.070.910.500.290.080.000.00
YoY Growth--71.07%161.94%2.58%-91.99%81.55%71.56%277.15%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.72%1.35%0.37%0.54%8.97%6.19%4.96%1.38%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,772.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,264.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,508.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,754.521,096.57657.94
Cash Retained (M)6,508.046,508.046,508.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,754.52-1,096.57-657.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,753.535,411.475,850.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,955.021,955.021,955.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.432.772.99
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.432.772.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.593.934.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$544.86$836.30$892.39
Upside / Downside3,660.27%5,671.58%6,058.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,772.589,342.809,950.0810,596.8311,285.6312,019.1912,379.77
Payout Ratio25.81%38.65%51.49%64.33%77.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,264.543,611.095,123.136,816.478,708.3010,817.2711,451.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,368.503,400.433,432.36
Year 2 PV (M)4,457.924,542.834,628.54
Year 3 PV (M)5,532.935,691.765,853.60
Year 4 PV (M)6,593.676,847.257,108.07
Year 5 PV (M)7,640.308,009.338,392.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)253,142.99265,369.89278,064.74
Equity Value (M)280,736.30293,861.48307,479.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,955.021,955.021,955.02
Fair Value$143.60$150.31$157.28
Upside / Downside891.01%937.34%985.42%

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