Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited (1066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.12 - $35.29$23.15
Multi-Stage$18.65 - $20.43$19.52
Blended Fair Value$21.33
Current Price$5.57
Upside283.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%12.11%0.190.160.160.140.150.160.050.120.060.07
YoY Growth--18.83%-1.21%13.52%-6.85%-1.42%226.49%-61.48%124.00%-23.77%19.35%
Dividend Yield--4.44%2.40%1.44%1.81%1.04%2.70%0.84%2.30%1.19%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,879.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,275.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)775.82484.89290.93
Cash Retained (M)2,275.902,275.902,275.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-775.82-484.89-290.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.081,791.011,984.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$16.12$23.15$35.29
Upside / Downside189.45%315.54%533.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,879.124,025.604,177.624,335.374,499.084,668.974,809.04
Payout Ratio41.33%51.06%60.80%70.53%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.222,055.622,539.893,057.813,611.224,202.074,448.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1,900.661,919.161,937.65
Year 2 PV (M)2,171.412,213.872,256.74
Year 3 PV (M)2,417.132,488.382,561.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,639.412,743.652,850.94
Year 5 PV (M)2,839.752,980.613,127.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,136.5776,764.5480,535.08
Equity Value (M)85,104.9489,110.2193,268.43
Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
Fair Value$18.65$19.52$20.43
Upside / Downside234.75%250.51%266.86%

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