Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited (0916.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.89 - $140.19$131.38
Multi-Stage$21.55 - $23.54$22.53
Blended Fair Value$76.95
Current Price$6.45
Upside1,093.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.63%30.59%0.660.140.180.110.100.090.090.080.070.06
YoY Growth--367.47%-19.74%55.28%9.29%10.13%6.43%8.00%18.55%20.10%25.68%
Dividend Yield--11.34%2.70%2.24%0.78%1.16%2.41%1.87%1.70%1.29%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,892.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,823.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,178.56736.60441.96
Cash Retained (M)69.7269.7269.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,178.56-736.60-441.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,108.84-666.88-372.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,359.428,359.428,359.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.08-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.08-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.89$131.38$140.19
Upside / Downside828.47%1,936.92%2,073.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,892.806,275.846,683.777,118.217,580.908,073.658,315.86
Payout Ratio98.82%97.05%95.29%93.53%91.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,823.086,090.926,368.976,657.436,956.487,266.297,692.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,665.825,719.525,773.22
Year 2 PV (M)5,510.985,615.955,721.90
Year 3 PV (M)5,358.535,512.365,669.10
Year 4 PV (M)5,208.465,408.765,614.78
Year 5 PV (M)5,060.715,305.155,558.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,352.09160,759.06168,449.50
Equity Value (M)180,156.59188,320.79196,787.45
Shares Outstanding (M)8,359.428,359.428,359.42
Fair Value$21.55$22.53$23.54
Upside / Downside234.13%249.27%264.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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