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The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.47 - $326.94$187.63
Multi-Stage$82.55 - $90.26$86.34
Blended Fair Value$136.99
Current Price$33.13
Upside313.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS15.78%10.19%0.660.560.500.470.380.320.320.340.360.28
YoY Growth--18.39%12.45%5.66%23.35%19.90%-0.55%-5.32%-6.76%30.15%11.07%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.39%1.46%2.14%1.36%0.86%0.89%1.60%1.82%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.873.672.20
Cash Retained (M)25.6225.6225.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.87-3.67-2.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.7521.9523.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.164.554.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.47$187.63$326.94
Upside / Downside269.67%466.36%886.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.3631.2633.3035.4637.7740.2241.43
Payout Ratio12.72%28.18%43.63%59.09%74.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.748.8114.5320.9528.1536.2038.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.008.088.15
Year 2 PV (M)11.9812.2112.44
Year 3 PV (M)15.6916.1416.60
Year 4 PV (M)19.1519.8920.64
Year 5 PV (M)22.3623.4424.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)389.32408.13427.65
Equity Value (M)466.51487.88510.05
Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
Fair Value$82.55$86.34$90.26
Upside / Downside149.18%160.60%172.44%

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