Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $220.71 - $302.64 | $262.16 |
| Multi-Stage | $357.67 - $393.67 | $375.31 |
| Blended Fair Value | $318.74 | |
| Current Price | $460.00 | |
| Upside | -30.71% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -30.14% | -10.66% | 2.70 | 5.42 | 33.32 | 13.94 | 10.69 | 16.24 | 12.24 | 8.50 | 8.25 | 9.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -50.18% | -83.72% | 138.95% | 30.37% | -34.15% | 32.65% | 44.12% | 3.00% | -8.31% | 7.77% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.71% | 1.42% | 5.29% | 2.76% | 6.50% | 8.90% | 7.65% | 4.25% | 2.89% | 3.68% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 124,396.79 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 17,997.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 106,399.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 24,879.36 | 15,549.60 | 9,329.76 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 106,399.19 | 106,399.19 | 106,399.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -24,879.36 | -15,549.60 | -9,329.76 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 81,519.84 | 90,849.59 | 97,069.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 27.17 | 30.28 | 32.36 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 27.17 | 30.28 | 32.36 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 33.17 | 36.28 | 38.36 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.99% | 9.99% | 9.99% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Fair Value | $220.71 | $262.16 | $302.64 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.02% | -43.01% | -34.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 124,396.79 | 120,194.86 | 116,134.86 | 112,212.01 | 108,421.66 | 104,759.34 | 107,902.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 14.47% | 29.57% | 44.68% | 59.79% | 74.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 17,997.60 | 35,546.81 | 51,889.91 | 67,088.37 | 81,200.86 | 94,283.41 | 99,809.46 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.99% | 9.99% | 9.99% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 31,982.48 | 32,316.95 | 32,651.42 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 42,005.49 | 42,888.66 | 43,781.02 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 48,863.21 | 50,412.31 | 51,993.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 53,211.68 | 55,472.75 | 57,805.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 55,589.55 | 58,557.72 | 61,651.34 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 841,365.41 | 886,289.53 | 933,112.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,073,017.83 | 1,125,937.92 | 1,180,995.13 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 |
| Fair Value | $357.67 | $375.31 | $393.67 |
| Upside / Downside | -22.25% | -18.41% | -14.42% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |