Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $352.95 - $548.41 | $443.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $819.33 - $902.21 | $859.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $651.64 | |
| Current Price | $580.00 | |
| Upside | 12.35% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -17.50% | 0.00% | 17.31 | 24.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.91 | 45.29 | 10.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -29.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -18.51% | 327.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.12% | 8.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.25% | 22.50% | 3.53% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 171,804.79 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 73,125.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 98,679.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 34,360.96 | 21,475.60 | 12,885.36 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 98,679.79 | 98,679.79 | 98,679.79 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -34,360.96 | -21,475.60 | -12,885.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 64,318.83 | 77,204.19 | 85,794.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,592.52 | 4,592.52 | 4,592.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 14.01 | 16.81 | 18.68 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 15.92 | 15.92 | 15.92 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 14.01 | 16.81 | 18.68 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 29.93 | 32.73 | 34.60 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $352.95 | $443.32 | $548.41 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.15% | -23.56% | -5.45% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 171,804.79 | 170,086.74 | 168,385.87 | 166,702.01 | 165,034.99 | 163,384.64 | 168,286.18 |
| Payout Ratio | 42.56% | 52.05% | 61.54% | 71.03% | 80.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 73,125.00 | 88,530.61 | 103,620.80 | 118,400.33 | 132,873.91 | 147,046.18 | 155,664.72 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 82,434.86 | 83,276.04 | 84,117.21 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 89,842.51 | 91,685.38 | 93,546.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 95,588.42 | 98,544.56 | 101,561.02 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 99,887.13 | 104,026.99 | 108,294.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 102,929.78 | 108,289.57 | 113,870.35 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,292,090.63 | 3,463,517.42 | 3,642,012.26 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,762,773.33 | 3,949,339.96 | 4,143,402.02 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,592.52 | 4,592.52 | 4,592.52 |
| Fair Value | $819.33 | $859.95 | $902.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 41.26% | 48.27% | 55.55% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |