Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HOB Biotech Group Corp.,Ltd (688656.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.29 - $6.17$5.21
Multi-Stage$7.22 - $7.92$7.56
Blended Fair Value$6.39
Current Price$158.55
Upside-95.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.84%0.00%0.470.320.560.320.820.790.030.030.030.00
YoY Growth--48.91%-43.40%76.67%-61.55%4.02%2,756.71%-9.98%20.39%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%1.18%1.48%0.75%1.27%1.24%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.294.552.73
Cash Retained (M)14.7514.7514.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.29-4.55-2.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.4610.1912.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.6959.6959.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.29$5.21$6.17
Upside / Downside-97.29%-96.72%-96.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.4336.0735.7135.3534.9934.6435.68
Payout Ratio59.52%65.62%71.71%77.81%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.6823.6725.6127.5029.3631.1833.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.4621.6821.90
Year 2 PV (M)21.0621.4921.93
Year 3 PV (M)20.5221.1521.80
Year 4 PV (M)19.8620.6921.53
Year 5 PV (M)19.1320.1221.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)329.16346.30364.15
Equity Value (M)431.19451.43472.47
Shares Outstanding (M)59.6959.6959.69
Fair Value$7.22$7.56$7.92
Upside / Downside-95.44%-95.23%-95.01%

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