Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Holly Futures Co., Ltd. (3678.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.88 - $2.66$2.49
Multi-Stage$0.36 - $0.39$0.38
Blended Fair Value$1.43
Current Price$4.68
Upside-69.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.53%-19.20%0.010.030.010.050.010.070.070.050.050.03
YoY Growth---80.92%465.31%-88.46%426.76%-86.62%1.38%33.33%20.00%33.38%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--0.27%2.71%0.36%5.18%1.32%10.02%6.62%4.67%2.97%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.681.681.01
Cash Retained (M)8.738.738.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.68-1.68-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.047.057.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.991,004.991,004.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.88$2.49$2.66
Upside / Downside-81.28%-46.82%-43.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.4214.2915.2216.2117.2618.3918.94
Payout Ratio34.97%45.98%56.98%67.99%78.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.696.578.6711.0213.6416.5517.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.106.156.21
Year 2 PV (M)7.467.617.75
Year 3 PV (M)8.809.059.31
Year 4 PV (M)10.1010.4910.89
Year 5 PV (M)11.3711.9212.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)317.82333.17349.11
Equity Value (M)361.64378.38395.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.991,004.991,004.99
Fair Value$0.36$0.38$0.39
Upside / Downside-92.31%-91.96%-91.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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