Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $178.66 - $473.94 | $273.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $124.97 - $136.39 | $130.58 |
| Blended Fair Value | $201.89 | |
| Current Price | $369.67 | |
| Upside | -45.39% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.40% | 10.19% | 3.15 | 2.95 | 2.72 | 2.46 | 2.23 | 2.01 | 1.82 | 1.65 | 1.47 | 1.35 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.02% | 8.37% | 10.63% | 10.08% | 10.93% | 10.67% | 10.53% | 11.97% | 9.02% | 12.77% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.85% | 0.83% | 0.95% | 0.92% | 0.92% | 1.21% | 0.93% | 1.02% | 1.12% | 1.26% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,943.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,268.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,675.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 588.60 | 367.88 | 220.73 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,675.00 | 1,675.00 | 1,675.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -588.60 | -367.88 | -220.73 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,086.40 | 1,307.13 | 1,454.28 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 386.40 | 386.40 | 386.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.81 | 3.38 | 3.76 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.28 | 3.28 | 3.28 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.81 | 3.38 | 3.76 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.09 | 6.66 | 7.05 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $178.66 | $273.19 | $473.94 |
| Upside / Downside | -51.67% | -26.10% | 28.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,943.00 | 3,134.30 | 3,338.02 | 3,555.00 | 3,786.07 | 4,032.17 | 4,153.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.09% | 52.47% | 61.85% | 71.23% | 80.62% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,268.00 | 1,644.51 | 2,064.61 | 2,532.37 | 3,052.22 | 3,628.95 | 3,841.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,493.21 | 1,507.37 | 1,521.52 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,702.20 | 1,734.62 | 1,767.35 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,895.77 | 1,950.19 | 2,005.64 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,074.72 | 2,154.51 | 2,236.58 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,239.81 | 2,347.99 | 2,460.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 38,883.03 | 40,761.10 | 42,711.04 |
| Equity Value (M) | 48,288.75 | 50,455.78 | 52,702.45 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 386.40 | 386.40 | 386.40 |
| Fair Value | $124.97 | $130.58 | $136.39 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.19% | -64.68% | -63.10% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |