Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,408.30 - $2,113.69 | $1,742.41 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,462.79 - $3,806.42 | $3,631.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,686.82 | |
| Current Price | $3,735.00 | |
| Upside | -28.06% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.83% | -0.82% | 142.09 | 137.31 | 205.20 | 130.24 | 147.73 | 148.14 | 148.93 | 163.47 | 165.74 | 154.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.48% | -33.08% | 57.56% | -11.84% | -0.27% | -0.53% | -8.89% | -1.37% | 7.45% | -0.01% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.03% | 2.65% | 5.93% | 4.06% | 3.30% | 5.31% | 3.15% | 3.53% | 3.50% | 3.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 10,480.92 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 9,322.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,158.06 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,096.18 | 1,310.12 | 786.07 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,158.06 | 1,158.06 | 1,158.06 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,096.18 | -1,310.12 | -786.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -938.12 | -152.05 | 371.99 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 61.84 | 61.84 | 61.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -15.17 | -2.46 | 6.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 150.75 | 150.75 | 150.75 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -15.17 | -2.46 | 6.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 135.58 | 148.30 | 156.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -2.82% | -1.82% | -0.82% |
| Fair Value | $1,408.30 | $1,742.41 | $2,113.69 |
| Upside / Downside | -62.29% | -53.35% | -43.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 10,480.92 | 10,290.40 | 10,103.34 | 9,919.68 | 9,739.36 | 9,562.31 | 9,849.18 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.95% | 89.16% | 89.37% | 89.58% | 89.79% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 9,322.86 | 9,174.98 | 9,029.40 | 8,886.08 | 8,744.98 | 8,606.08 | 9,110.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -2.82% | -1.82% | -0.82% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8,524.19 | 8,611.90 | 8,699.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 7,793.89 | 7,955.11 | 8,117.99 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 7,126.12 | 7,348.38 | 7,575.20 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,515.53 | 6,787.88 | 7,068.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,957.23 | 6,270.10 | 6,595.98 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 178,226.23 | 187,586.59 | 197,336.17 |
| Equity Value (M) | 214,143.19 | 224,559.96 | 235,393.63 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 61.84 | 61.84 | 61.84 |
| Fair Value | $3,462.79 | $3,631.23 | $3,806.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -7.29% | -2.78% | 1.91% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |