Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Fundamentals

Valuations

Miscellaneous

Analysis Mode

Search

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.43 - $343.34$197.91
Multi-Stage$86.87 - $95.01$90.86
Blended Fair Value$144.39
Current Price$97.01
Upside48.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.63%6.76%0.400.370.360.340.320.300.320.290.260.24
YoY Growth--7.75%4.23%4.84%5.98%5.41%-6.33%10.23%12.57%9.65%14.70%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.30%0.28%0.31%0.28%0.59%0.72%0.72%0.99%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.6450.4030.24
Cash Retained (M)372.50372.50372.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.64-50.40-30.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.86322.10342.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.414.835.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$129.43$197.91$343.34
Upside / Downside33.42%104.01%253.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403.20429.41457.32487.05518.70552.42568.99
Payout Ratio7.61%24.09%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.70103.45185.53277.84381.37497.18526.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.9394.8295.71
Year 2 PV (M)152.96155.87158.82
Year 3 PV (M)207.99213.96220.05
Year 4 PV (M)259.23269.20279.45
Year 5 PV (M)306.86321.68337.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,327.095,584.405,851.54
Equity Value (M)6,348.076,639.946,942.64
Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
Fair Value$86.87$90.86$95.01
Upside / Downside-10.45%-6.33%-2.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

« Prev Page 6 of 30 Next »
Ticker Company Dividend Yield % Dividend Per Share Payout Ratio %
FFord Motor Company5.53%$0.7463.45%
LCNBLCNB Corp.5.48%$0.8953.03%
PPBIPacific Premier Bancorp, Inc.5.48%$1.3492.42%
VGRVector Group Ltd.5.48%$0.8263.35%
DLXDeluxe Corporation5.43%$1.2166.43%
BAFNBayFirst Financial Corp.5.41%$0.4321.50%
IPGThe Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.5.41%$1.3388.72%
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.5.39%$1.6256.40%
OKEONEOK, Inc.5.38%$4.0075.29%
BUSEFirst Busey Corporation5.37%$1.2875.92%
OASOasis Petroleum Inc.5.37%$5.8765.40%
EIXEdison International5.36%$3.2639.45%
0R1X.LGeneral Mills, Inc.5.35%$2.4545.62%
FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.5.35%$1.8979.54%
FNCBFNCB Bancorp, Inc.5.33%$0.3651.41%
DHILDiamond Hill Investment Group, Inc.5.31%$9.0552.46%
SLRCSLR Investment Corp.5.31%$0.8249.67%
EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.5.30%$0.2491.92%
UVVUniversal Corporation5.28%$2.7862.64%
FLICThe First of Long Island Corporation5.27%$0.6386.64%
AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation5.22%$1.8576.04%
SAFESafehold Inc.5.20%$0.7145.17%
GAB-PGThe Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G5.19%$1.0881.70%
HPQHP Inc.5.19%$1.1543.02%
SOISolaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc.5.18%$0.7025.64%
MBINOMerchants Bancorp5.17%$1.2924.09%
0JXQ.LMain Street Capital Corporation5.13%$3.1752.63%
EMNEastman Chemical Company5.12%$3.2954.36%
EMBCEmbecta Corp.5.10%$0.5936.96%
AMAntero Midstream Corporation5.09%$0.9193.18%
CZNCCitizens & Northern Corporation5.09%$1.0257.64%
FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.5.09%$0.6846.83%
0J66.LHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc.5.08%$0.9084.69%
GLPIGaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.5.07%$2.2582.42%
PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.5.07%$2.4446.22%
TBBAT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 665.07%$1.1436.88%
KFRCKforce Inc.5.02%$1.5768.10%
TTPTortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc.5.02%$2.3920.11%
STAR-PGiStar Inc.4.94%$1.2434.23%
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.4.93%$0.9761.13%
UBFOUnited Security Bancshares4.92%$0.4873.45%
DDTDillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5%4.90%$1.293.46%
SGUStar Group, L.P.4.89%$0.5836.90%
AGRAvangrid, Inc.4.88%$1.7660.70%
KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation4.88%$4.9583.80%
OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.4.86%$0.8761.98%
0I0J.LThe Clorox Company4.85%$4.8976.11%
FNLCThe First Bancorp, Inc.4.83%$1.2845.40%
RILYZB. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 20284.83%$0.5856.91%
BSETBassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated4.82%$0.8089.43%