Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $314.93 - $835.42 | $481.56 |
| Multi-Stage | $216.52 - $236.51 | $226.33 |
| Blended Fair Value | $353.95 | |
| Current Price | $486.71 | |
| Upside | -27.28% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 15.16% | 13.28% | 3.69 | 3.73 | 3.33 | 2.42 | 2.10 | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.37 | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.13% | 12.01% | 37.82% | 15.19% | 15.18% | 11.33% | 19.48% | 10.79% | 4.68% | 11.35% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.73% | 0.87% | 0.97% | 0.59% | 0.59% | 0.74% | 0.77% | 0.72% | 0.95% | 1.19% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,129.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,160.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,969.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 825.80 | 516.13 | 309.68 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,969.00 | 2,969.00 | 2,969.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -825.80 | -516.13 | -309.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,143.20 | 2,452.88 | 2,659.33 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 307.55 | 307.55 | 307.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.97 | 7.98 | 8.65 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.77 | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.97 | 7.98 | 8.65 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.74 | 11.75 | 12.42 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $314.93 | $481.56 | $835.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.29% | -1.06% | 71.65% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,129.00 | 4,397.39 | 4,683.22 | 4,987.62 | 5,311.82 | 5,657.09 | 5,826.80 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.09% | 40.48% | 52.86% | 65.24% | 77.62% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,160.00 | 1,779.85 | 2,475.38 | 3,253.81 | 4,122.97 | 5,091.38 | 5,389.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,616.10 | 1,631.42 | 1,646.74 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,040.86 | 2,079.73 | 2,118.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,435.85 | 2,505.77 | 2,577.02 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,802.56 | 2,910.34 | 3,021.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,142.43 | 3,294.21 | 3,451.80 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 54,552.51 | 57,187.42 | 59,923.17 |
| Equity Value (M) | 66,590.31 | 69,608.90 | 72,738.90 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 307.55 | 307.55 | 307.55 |
| Fair Value | $216.52 | $226.33 | $236.51 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.51% | -53.50% | -51.41% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |