Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,805.79 - $3,784.90 | $3,307.68 |
| Multi-Stage | $8,681.25 - $9,626.36 | $9,143.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6,225.73 | |
| Current Price | $13,710.00 | |
| Upside | -54.59% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.55% | -7.61% | 165.42 | 215.56 | 219.26 | 487.96 | 272.61 | 323.43 | 110.05 | 292.52 | 196.23 | 115.22 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -23.26% | -1.69% | -55.07% | 79.00% | -15.71% | 193.89% | -62.38% | 49.07% | 70.32% | -68.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.67% | 1.46% | 1.30% | 1.80% | 0.82% | 0.78% | 0.38% | 0.72% | 0.52% | 0.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 11,262.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,784.82 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,252.40 | 1,407.75 | 844.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,252.40 | -1,407.75 | -844.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,224.79 | 6,069.44 | 6,632.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 210.50 | 210.50 | 210.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 501.10 | 548.08 | 579.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Fair Value | $2,805.79 | $3,307.68 | $3,784.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -79.53% | -75.87% | -72.39% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 11,262.02 | 10,292.33 | 9,406.13 | 8,596.24 | 7,856.08 | 7,179.65 | 7,395.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.61% | 44.89% | 56.16% | 67.44% | 78.72% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,784.82 | 4,619.77 | 5,282.88 | 5,797.54 | 6,184.42 | 6,461.69 | 6,840.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,289.03 | 4,336.48 | 4,383.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,553.52 | 4,654.83 | 4,757.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,639.37 | 4,795.06 | 4,954.19 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,594.65 | 4,801.37 | 5,014.99 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,456.95 | 4,709.00 | 4,972.34 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 133,553.12 | 141,106.03 | 148,996.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 156,086.63 | 164,402.77 | 173,079.56 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| Fair Value | $8,681.25 | $9,143.77 | $9,626.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.68% | -33.31% | -29.79% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | Ford Motor Company | 5.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| LCNB | LCNB Corp. | 5.48% | $0.89 | 53.03% |
| PPBI | Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. | 5.48% | $1.34 | 92.42% |
| VGR | Vector Group Ltd. | 5.48% | $0.82 | 63.35% |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | 5.43% | $1.21 | 66.43% |
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp. | 5.41% | $0.43 | 21.50% |
| IPG | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | 5.41% | $1.33 | 88.72% |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 5.39% | $1.62 | 56.40% |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | 5.38% | $4.00 | 75.29% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corporation | 5.37% | $1.28 | 75.92% |
| OAS | Oasis Petroleum Inc. | 5.37% | $5.87 | 65.40% |
| EIX | Edison International | 5.36% | $3.26 | 39.45% |
| 0R1X.L | General Mills, Inc. | 5.35% | $2.45 | 45.62% |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | 5.35% | $1.89 | 79.54% |
| FNCB | FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | 5.33% | $0.36 | 51.41% |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. | 5.31% | $9.05 | 52.46% |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | 5.31% | $0.82 | 49.67% |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy Ltd. | 5.30% | $0.24 | 91.92% |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | 5.28% | $2.78 | 62.64% |
| FLIC | The First of Long Island Corporation | 5.27% | $0.63 | 86.64% |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | 5.22% | $1.85 | 76.04% |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | 5.20% | $0.71 | 45.17% |
| GAB-PG | The Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. PFD-G | 5.19% | $1.08 | 81.70% |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | 5.19% | $1.15 | 43.02% |
| SOI | Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. | 5.18% | $0.70 | 25.64% |
| MBINO | Merchants Bancorp | 5.17% | $1.29 | 24.09% |
| 0JXQ.L | Main Street Capital Corporation | 5.13% | $3.17 | 52.63% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | 5.12% | $3.29 | 54.36% |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp. | 5.10% | $0.59 | 36.96% |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | 5.09% | $0.91 | 93.18% |
| CZNC | Citizens & Northern Corporation | 5.09% | $1.02 | 57.64% |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc Corp. | 5.09% | $0.68 | 46.83% |
| 0J66.L | Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.08% | $0.90 | 84.69% |
| GLPI | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | 5.07% | $2.25 | 82.42% |
| PFIS | Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 5.07% | $2.44 | 46.22% |
| TBB | AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 | 5.07% | $1.14 | 36.88% |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc. | 5.02% | $1.57 | 68.10% |
| TTP | Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. | 5.02% | $2.39 | 20.11% |
| STAR-PG | iStar Inc. | 4.94% | $1.24 | 34.23% |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 4.93% | $0.97 | 61.13% |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 4.92% | $0.48 | 73.45% |
| DDT | Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% | 4.90% | $1.29 | 3.46% |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | 4.89% | $0.58 | 36.90% |
| AGR | Avangrid, Inc. | 4.88% | $1.76 | 60.70% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation | 4.88% | $4.95 | 83.80% |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp. | 4.86% | $0.87 | 61.98% |
| 0I0J.L | The Clorox Company | 4.85% | $4.89 | 76.11% |
| FNLC | The First Bancorp, Inc. | 4.83% | $1.28 | 45.40% |
| RILYZ | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028 | 4.83% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated | 4.82% | $0.80 | 89.43% |