Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Toronto-Dominion Bank NCUM 5Y PFD SR18 (TD-PFJ.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$561.07 - $2,371.86$1,399.96
Multi-Stage$332.61 - $364.24$348.13
Blended Fair Value$874.05
Current Price$25.69
Upside3,302.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.78%8.43%4.113.353.833.192.102.962.662.422.191.98
YoY Growth--22.92%-12.60%19.98%51.78%-29.03%11.29%10.05%10.58%10.57%8.03%
Dividend Yield--16.26%15.18%17.41%14.51%8.35%11.76%10.57%9.63%8.71%7.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,893.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,537.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,356.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,178.602,611.631,566.98
Cash Retained (M)13,356.0013,356.0013,356.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,178.60-2,611.63-1,566.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,177.4010,744.3811,789.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,740.151,740.151,740.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.276.176.77
LTM Dividend per Share4.334.334.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.276.176.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6110.5111.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate4.78%5.78%6.78%
Fair Value$561.07$1,399.96$2,371.86
Upside / Downside2,084.00%5,349.44%9,132.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,893.0022,101.3023,379.4724,731.5726,161.8627,674.8728,505.11
Payout Ratio36.07%46.86%57.64%68.43%79.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,537.0010,356.5413,477.0016,923.7420,724.0824,907.3826,367.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate4.78%5.78%6.78%
Year 1 PV (M)9,625.569,717.429,809.28
Year 2 PV (M)11,641.6711,864.9412,090.32
Year 3 PV (M)13,587.1913,979.9314,380.16
Year 4 PV (M)15,463.9316,062.7516,678.80
Year 5 PV (M)17,273.6318,113.7718,986.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)511,200.36536,063.65561,885.08
Equity Value (M)578,792.35605,802.45633,829.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,740.151,740.151,740.15
Fair Value$332.61$348.13$364.24
Upside / Downside1,194.71%1,255.13%1,317.82%

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