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The Toronto-Dominion Bank NCUM 5Y PFD SR18 (TD-PFJ.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$566.05 - $2,371.86$1,428.37
Multi-Stage$334.15 - $365.93$349.75
Blended Fair Value$889.06
Current Price$25.69
Upside3,360.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.78%8.43%4.113.353.833.192.102.962.662.422.191.98
YoY Growth--22.92%-12.60%19.98%51.78%-29.03%11.29%10.05%10.58%10.57%8.03%
Dividend Yield--16.26%15.18%17.41%14.51%8.35%11.76%10.57%9.63%8.71%7.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,893.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,537.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,356.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,178.602,611.631,566.98
Cash Retained (M)13,356.0013,356.0013,356.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,178.60-2,611.63-1,566.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,177.4010,744.3811,789.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,740.151,740.151,740.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.276.176.77
LTM Dividend per Share4.334.334.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.276.176.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6110.5111.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate4.78%5.78%6.78%
Fair Value$566.05$1,428.37$2,371.86
Upside / Downside2,103.40%5,460.04%9,132.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,893.0022,101.3023,379.4724,731.5726,161.8627,674.8728,505.11
Payout Ratio36.07%46.86%57.64%68.43%79.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,537.0010,356.5413,477.0016,923.7420,724.0824,907.3826,367.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate4.78%5.78%6.78%
Year 1 PV (M)9,626.989,718.869,810.73
Year 2 PV (M)11,645.1211,868.4512,093.91
Year 3 PV (M)13,593.2313,986.1414,386.55
Year 4 PV (M)15,473.0916,072.2716,688.69
Year 5 PV (M)17,286.4418,127.2019,000.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)513,847.60538,839.63564,794.78
Equity Value (M)581,472.47608,612.56636,775.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1,740.151,740.151,740.15
Fair Value$334.15$349.75$365.93
Upside / Downside1,200.70%1,261.41%1,324.41%

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