Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

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Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Moelis & Company (MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.66 - $106.53$73.49
Multi-Stage$42.85 - $46.59$44.69
Blended Fair Value$59.09
Current Price$71.32
Upside-17.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-56.91%-39.30%0.042.322.236.113.602.664.003.261.971.03
YoY Growth---98.29%4.30%-63.61%69.65%35.25%-33.35%22.74%65.28%91.21%-82.32%
Dividend Yield--0.07%4.13%5.79%13.02%6.57%9.48%9.26%6.41%5.12%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)234.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.9129.3217.59
Cash Retained (M)33.0933.0933.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.91-29.32-17.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.823.7715.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.4978.4978.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.050.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.572.572.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.050.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.66$73.49$106.53
Upside / Downside-26.16%3.04%49.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)234.57249.82266.06283.35301.77321.38331.02
Payout Ratio85.89%86.71%87.54%88.36%89.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.48216.63232.89250.36269.11289.24306.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.57196.42198.26
Year 2 PV (M)187.89191.47195.08
Year 3 PV (M)181.41186.62191.93
Year 4 PV (M)175.15181.89188.81
Year 5 PV (M)169.09177.25185.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,455.592,574.202,697.34
Equity Value (M)3,363.703,507.843,657.16
Shares Outstanding (M)78.4978.4978.49
Fair Value$42.85$44.69$46.59
Upside / Downside-39.91%-37.34%-34.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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