Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (ELET5.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.17 - $54.39$42.63
Multi-Stage$37.41 - $40.81$39.08
Blended Fair Value$40.85
Current Price$82.50
Upside-50.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%4.84%0.570.370.641.621.120.510.030.170.000.01
YoY Growth--51.34%-42.00%-60.24%44.48%119.24%1,734.36%-83.09%6,487.84%-74.89%-97.17%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.38%0.99%2.51%1.56%1.25%0.06%0.85%0.01%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,632.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,243.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,388.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,326.46829.03497.42
Cash Retained (M)2,388.562,388.562,388.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,326.46-829.03-497.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,062.101,559.521,891.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.302.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Fair Value$33.17$42.63$54.39
Upside / Downside-59.79%-48.33%-34.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,632.286,887.187,151.877,426.747,712.178,008.578,248.83
Payout Ratio63.99%69.19%74.39%79.59%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,243.724,765.155,320.395,911.276,539.707,207.727,630.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Year 1 PV (M)4,291.824,333.564,375.29
Year 2 PV (M)4,315.934,400.274,485.42
Year 3 PV (M)4,318.944,446.154,575.84
Year 4 PV (M)4,303.484,473.324,648.13
Year 5 PV (M)4,271.944,483.714,703.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,982.0768,203.3871,551.20
Equity Value (M)86,484.1790,340.3894,339.67
Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
Fair Value$37.41$39.08$40.81
Upside / Downside-54.65%-52.63%-50.53%

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