Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (ELET5.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.65 - $193.44$106.92
Multi-Stage$80.98 - $88.76$84.80
Blended Fair Value$95.86
Current Price$82.50
Upside16.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%4.84%0.570.370.641.621.120.510.030.170.000.01
YoY Growth--51.34%-42.00%-60.24%44.48%119.24%1,734.36%-83.09%6,487.84%-74.89%-97.17%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.38%0.99%2.51%1.56%1.25%0.06%0.85%0.01%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,632.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,243.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,388.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,326.46829.03497.42
Cash Retained (M)2,388.562,388.562,388.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,326.46-829.03-497.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,062.101,559.521,891.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.302.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Fair Value$68.65$106.92$193.44
Upside / Downside-16.78%29.59%134.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,632.286,887.187,151.877,426.747,712.178,008.578,248.83
Payout Ratio63.99%69.19%74.39%79.59%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,243.724,765.155,320.395,911.276,539.707,207.727,630.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Year 1 PV (M)4,440.334,483.514,526.68
Year 2 PV (M)4,619.784,710.054,801.20
Year 3 PV (M)4,782.964,923.855,067.47
Year 4 PV (M)4,930.755,125.355,325.64
Year 5 PV (M)5,063.985,315.015,575.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)163,351.48171,449.20179,864.92
Equity Value (M)187,189.28196,006.96205,161.82
Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
Fair Value$80.98$84.80$88.76
Upside / Downside-1.84%2.78%7.58%

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