Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.07 - $220.37$152.15
Multi-Stage$159.73 - $175.02$167.23
Blended Fair Value$159.69
Current Price$123.75
Upside29.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%3.70%4.144.184.104.013.623.443.183.163.002.90
YoY Growth---0.96%2.04%2.09%10.74%5.40%7.97%0.86%5.06%3.46%0.90%
Dividend Yield--3.39%4.35%4.25%3.59%3.75%4.25%3.57%4.07%3.66%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,993.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,022.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)971.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)998.60624.13374.48
Cash Retained (M)971.00971.00971.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-998.60-624.13-374.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.60346.88596.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
LTM Dividend per Share5.185.185.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$109.07$152.15$220.37
Upside / Downside-11.86%22.95%78.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,993.005,132.185,275.245,422.285,573.435,728.795,900.65
Payout Ratio80.55%82.44%84.33%86.22%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,022.004,231.084,448.704,675.154,910.785,155.915,458.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)3,930.893,969.514,008.13
Year 2 PV (M)3,839.823,915.643,992.20
Year 3 PV (M)3,748.993,860.573,974.34
Year 4 PV (M)3,658.543,804.443,954.67
Year 5 PV (M)3,568.633,747.413,933.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,242.53110,514.83115,996.34
Equity Value (M)123,989.39129,812.39135,858.96
Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
Fair Value$159.73$167.23$175.02
Upside / Downside29.07%35.14%41.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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