Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.51 - $212.77$151.40
Multi-Stage$98.89 - $108.27$103.50
Blended Fair Value$127.45
Current Price$113.47
Upside12.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.58%-5.16%1.000.750.000.000.000.881.601.391.351.28
YoY Growth--31.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.18%15.11%2.86%5.71%-24.49%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%1.10%1.27%1.21%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,404.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)905.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,499.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,480.801,550.50930.30
Cash Retained (M)11,499.0011,499.0011,499.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,480.80-1,550.50-930.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,018.209,948.5010,568.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,812.001,812.001,812.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.985.495.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.985.495.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.485.996.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$110.51$151.40$212.77
Upside / Downside-2.60%33.43%87.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,404.0013,030.7413,689.1414,380.8115,107.4315,870.7716,346.89
Payout Ratio7.30%23.84%40.38%56.92%73.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)905.003,106.115,527.358,185.3311,097.8014,283.6915,120.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)2,817.122,844.202,871.27
Year 2 PV (M)4,546.674,634.484,723.13
Year 3 PV (M)6,106.626,284.386,465.55
Year 4 PV (M)7,509.137,801.988,103.32
Year 5 PV (M)8,765.599,194.979,641.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)149,452.59156,773.54164,378.61
Equity Value (M)179,197.71187,533.54196,182.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,812.001,812.001,812.00
Fair Value$98.89$103.50$108.27
Upside / Downside-12.84%-8.79%-4.58%

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