Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.94 - $220.51$155.55
Multi-Stage$100.88 - $110.45$105.58
Blended Fair Value$130.56
Current Price$113.47
Upside15.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.58%-5.16%1.000.750.000.000.000.881.601.391.351.28
YoY Growth--31.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.18%15.11%2.86%5.71%-24.49%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%1.10%1.27%1.21%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,404.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)905.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,499.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,480.801,550.50930.30
Cash Retained (M)11,499.0011,499.0011,499.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,480.80-1,550.50-930.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,018.209,948.5010,568.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,812.001,812.001,812.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.985.495.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.985.495.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.485.996.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$112.94$155.55$220.51
Upside / Downside-0.46%37.08%94.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,404.0013,030.7413,689.1414,380.8115,107.4315,870.7716,346.89
Payout Ratio7.30%23.84%40.38%56.92%73.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)905.003,106.115,527.358,185.3311,097.8014,283.6915,120.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)2,819.982,847.092,874.19
Year 2 PV (M)4,555.914,643.914,732.74
Year 3 PV (M)6,125.266,303.566,485.29
Year 4 PV (M)7,539.707,833.758,136.32
Year 5 PV (M)8,810.239,241.809,690.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,945.30160,437.34168,220.15
Equity Value (M)182,796.38191,307.44200,138.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,812.001,812.001,812.00
Fair Value$100.88$105.58$110.45
Upside / Downside-11.09%-6.96%-2.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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