Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (2328.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.54 - $545.05$510.79
Multi-Stage$70.20 - $76.78$73.43
Blended Fair Value$292.11
Current Price$13.87
Upside2,006.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%17.82%0.700.480.410.380.460.270.230.210.200.18
YoY Growth--45.81%17.44%8.52%-18.65%69.49%20.71%9.38%1.64%12.59%33.16%
Dividend Yield--6.06%5.68%6.22%7.23%9.33%3.24%3.21%2.47%2.81%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,958.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,135.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,823.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,191.607,619.754,571.85
Cash Retained (M)34,823.0034,823.0034,823.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,191.60-7,619.75-4,571.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,631.4027,203.2530,251.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.54$510.79$545.05
Upside / Downside1,014.20%3,582.71%3,829.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,958.0064,920.2769,140.0973,634.1978,420.4283,517.7486,023.28
Payout Ratio42.87%52.30%61.72%71.15%80.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,135.0033,952.6742,676.2152,390.3763,187.0675,165.9779,571.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31,434.4631,732.4232,030.38
Year 2 PV (M)36,580.5437,277.3037,980.63
Year 3 PV (M)41,576.4942,770.0043,986.14
Year 4 PV (M)46,425.5048,210.9050,047.30
Year 5 PV (M)51,130.7153,600.3456,164.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,354,276.341,419,688.391,487,603.92
Equity Value (M)1,561,424.041,633,279.351,707,812.85
Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
Fair Value$70.20$73.43$76.78
Upside / Downside406.14%429.43%453.59%

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