Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Gas Group Limited (1193.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$367.99 - $715.42$670.45
Multi-Stage$113.12 - $123.72$118.32
Blended Fair Value$394.39
Current Price$20.05
Upside1,867.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.19%18.03%1.261.051.270.930.870.740.530.430.360.29
YoY Growth--19.70%-17.32%36.56%6.90%17.65%40.00%22.22%18.54%26.74%20.11%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.06%4.33%2.11%2.11%1.73%1.70%1.54%1.67%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,169.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,936.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,633.871,021.17612.70
Cash Retained (M)2,936.832,936.832,936.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,633.87-1,021.17-612.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.951,915.652,324.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.883.153.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$367.99$670.45$715.42
Upside / Downside1,735.37%3,243.90%3,468.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,169.378,700.389,265.909,868.1910,509.6211,192.7511,528.53
Payout Ratio64.05%69.24%74.43%79.62%84.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,232.556,024.206,896.667,857.088,913.2310,073.4710,663.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,612.635,665.835,719.03
Year 2 PV (M)5,986.506,100.536,215.63
Year 3 PV (M)6,354.236,536.646,722.50
Year 4 PV (M)6,715.896,974.177,239.82
Year 5 PV (M)7,071.567,413.127,767.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)225,139.83236,014.17247,304.69
Equity Value (M)256,880.64268,704.45280,969.43
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
Fair Value$113.12$118.32$123.72
Upside / Downside464.17%490.14%517.07%

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