Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Gas Group Limited (1193.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$369.27 - $715.42$670.45
Multi-Stage$113.22 - $123.83$118.43
Blended Fair Value$394.44
Current Price$20.05
Upside1,867.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.19%18.03%1.261.051.270.930.870.740.530.430.360.29
YoY Growth--19.70%-17.32%36.56%6.90%17.65%40.00%22.22%18.54%26.74%20.11%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.06%4.33%2.11%2.11%1.73%1.70%1.54%1.67%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,169.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,936.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,633.871,021.17612.70
Cash Retained (M)2,936.832,936.832,936.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,633.87-1,021.17-612.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.951,915.652,324.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.883.153.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$369.27$670.45$715.42
Upside / Downside1,741.73%3,243.90%3,468.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,169.378,700.389,265.909,868.1910,509.6211,192.7511,528.53
Payout Ratio64.05%69.24%74.43%79.62%84.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,232.556,024.206,896.667,857.088,913.2310,073.4710,663.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,612.785,665.985,719.18
Year 2 PV (M)5,986.826,100.856,215.96
Year 3 PV (M)6,354.746,537.166,723.04
Year 4 PV (M)6,716.616,974.917,240.60
Year 5 PV (M)7,072.517,414.117,768.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)225,362.96236,248.08247,549.79
Equity Value (M)257,106.43268,941.10281,217.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
Fair Value$113.22$118.43$123.83
Upside / Downside464.66%490.66%517.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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