Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited (0590.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.45 - $91.97$71.60
Multi-Stage$106.57 - $117.21$111.79
Blended Fair Value$91.69
Current Price$15.30
Upside499.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.59%-0.02%1.191.271.101.551.001.101.101.101.101.10
YoY Growth---6.30%15.45%-29.03%55.00%-9.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.34%-7.41%
Dividend Yield--7.78%5.84%4.38%8.12%4.67%7.04%4.07%3.86%4.45%6.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,828.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,868.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.78353.61212.17
Cash Retained (M)1,868.991,868.991,868.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.78-353.61-212.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,303.211,515.381,656.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.854.224.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$55.45$71.60$91.97
Upside / Downside262.40%367.95%501.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,828.912,845.472,862.122,878.882,895.722,912.673,000.05
Payout Ratio33.93%45.15%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.921,284.621,613.081,945.342,281.442,621.412,775.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.131,206.121,218.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,393.831,421.961,450.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,562.521,610.071,658.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,703.401,772.861,844.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,819.361,912.562,009.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,896.2657,708.4260,634.66
Equity Value (M)62,569.5065,631.9868,815.67
Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
Fair Value$106.57$111.79$117.21
Upside / Downside596.55%630.64%666.09%

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