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Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited (0590.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.61 - $92.35$71.85
Multi-Stage$107.22 - $117.93$112.47
Blended Fair Value$92.16
Current Price$15.30
Upside502.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.59%-0.02%1.191.271.101.551.001.101.101.101.101.10
YoY Growth---6.30%15.45%-29.03%55.00%-9.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.34%-7.41%
Dividend Yield--7.78%5.84%4.38%8.12%4.67%7.04%4.07%3.86%4.45%6.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,828.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,868.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.78353.61212.17
Cash Retained (M)1,868.991,868.991,868.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.78-353.61-212.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,303.211,515.381,656.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.854.224.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$55.61$71.85$92.35
Upside / Downside263.48%369.58%503.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,828.912,845.472,862.122,878.882,895.722,912.673,000.05
Payout Ratio33.93%45.15%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.921,284.621,613.081,945.342,281.442,621.412,775.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.361,206.351,218.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,394.371,422.511,450.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,563.431,611.001,659.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,704.711,774.221,845.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,821.111,914.402,011.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,273.0458,104.5061,050.82
Equity Value (M)62,951.0266,032.9969,236.95
Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
Fair Value$107.22$112.47$117.93
Upside / Downside600.80%635.11%670.78%

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