Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. (002236.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.80 - $41.66$28.92
Multi-Stage$15.97 - $17.41$16.68
Blended Fair Value$22.80
Current Price$20.15
Upside13.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.13%31.66%0.580.570.280.270.140.120.210.110.080.04
YoY Growth--0.84%105.07%2.88%96.87%11.60%-41.87%94.35%33.63%125.39%-1.58%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.00%1.24%1.64%0.56%0.77%1.23%0.43%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,896.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,497.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,398.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)779.24487.02292.21
Cash Retained (M)2,398.782,398.782,398.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-779.24-487.02-292.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.541,911.752,106.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate10.36%10.36%10.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.80$28.92$41.66
Upside / Downside3.25%43.54%106.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,896.194,149.444,419.154,706.405,012.315,338.115,498.26
Payout Ratio38.43%48.75%59.06%69.37%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,497.412,022.692,609.943,264.973,994.144,804.305,085.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.36%10.36%10.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,815.631,832.841,850.05
Year 2 PV (M)2,102.932,142.992,183.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,361.422,429.212,498.28
Year 4 PV (M)2,593.072,692.792,795.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,799.752,934.983,075.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,278.9042,224.3944,244.33
Equity Value (M)51,951.7154,257.2056,646.84
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
Fair Value$15.97$16.68$17.41
Upside / Downside-20.75%-17.24%-13.59%

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