Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk (ULTJ.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,673.64 - $23,263.37$9,799.00
Multi-Stage$2,571.41 - $2,811.09$2,689.07
Blended Fair Value$6,244.03
Current Price$1,290.00
Upside384.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.56%24.21%41.5332.8523.7092.306.7814.4215.304.770.790.00
YoY Growth--26.42%38.66%-74.33%1,260.64%-52.95%-5.77%221.02%506.91%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.76%1.68%6.17%0.45%0.90%1.24%0.30%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,216,325.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483,516.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)732,809.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)243,265.00152,040.6391,224.38
Cash Retained (M)732,809.00732,809.00732,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-243,265.00-152,040.63-91,224.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)489,544.00580,768.38641,584.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
LTM Dividend per Share46.5046.5046.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend93.58102.35108.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,673.64$9,799.00$23,263.37
Upside / Downside262.30%659.61%1,703.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,216,325.001,295,386.131,379,586.221,469,259.331,564,761.181,666,470.661,716,464.78
Payout Ratio39.75%49.80%59.85%69.90%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483,516.00645,125.13825,700.601,027,025.231,251,033.471,499,823.591,587,729.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)593,860.47599,489.48605,118.49
Year 2 PV (M)699,686.53713,013.59726,466.38
Year 3 PV (M)801,129.05824,126.59847,560.08
Year 4 PV (M)898,319.35932,866.17968,399.98
Year 5 PV (M)991,385.281,039,269.561,088,986.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,753,600.4723,852,607.8824,993,676.89
Equity Value (M)26,737,981.1427,961,373.2729,230,208.30
Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
Fair Value$2,571.41$2,689.07$2,811.09
Upside / Downside99.33%108.45%117.91%

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