Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk (ULTJ.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,199.62 - $23,263.37$21,801.19
Multi-Stage$3,640.22 - $3,984.76$3,809.32
Blended Fair Value$12,805.26
Current Price$1,290.00
Upside892.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.56%24.21%41.5332.8523.7092.306.7814.4215.304.770.790.00
YoY Growth--26.42%38.66%-74.33%1,260.64%-52.95%-5.77%221.02%506.91%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.76%1.68%6.17%0.45%0.90%1.24%0.30%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,216,325.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483,516.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)732,809.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)243,265.00152,040.6391,224.38
Cash Retained (M)732,809.00732,809.00732,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-243,265.00-152,040.63-91,224.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)489,544.00580,768.38641,584.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
LTM Dividend per Share46.5046.5046.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend93.58102.35108.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,199.62$21,801.19$23,263.37
Upside / Downside845.71%1,590.01%1,703.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,216,325.001,295,386.131,379,586.221,469,259.331,564,761.181,666,470.661,716,464.78
Payout Ratio39.75%49.80%59.85%69.90%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483,516.00645,125.13825,700.601,027,025.231,251,033.471,499,823.591,587,729.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)601,140.12606,838.13612,536.14
Year 2 PV (M)716,945.43730,601.23744,385.86
Year 3 PV (M)830,952.82854,806.49879,112.34
Year 4 PV (M)943,182.93979,455.081,016,763.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,053,656.221,104,548.211,157,387.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,705,774.7235,333,776.2437,024,085.21
Equity Value (M)37,851,652.2439,610,025.3841,434,271.02
Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
Fair Value$3,640.22$3,809.32$3,984.76
Upside / Downside182.19%195.30%208.90%

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