Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Exelon Corporation (EXC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.31 - $18.07$15.74
Multi-Stage$37.24 - $41.15$39.15
Blended Fair Value$27.44
Current Price$45.01
Upside-39.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.23%-3.12%0.771.421.321.491.481.401.321.231.161.10
YoY Growth---45.85%7.42%-10.89%0.34%5.97%5.71%7.77%6.00%5.52%3.76%
Dividend Yield--1.67%3.82%3.16%3.12%4.75%5.32%3.72%4.41%4.51%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,821.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,594.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,227.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)564.20352.63211.58
Cash Retained (M)1,227.001,227.001,227.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-564.20-352.63-211.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)662.80874.381,015.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.391,007.391,007.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.871.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.581.581.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.871.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-8.40%-7.40%-6.40%
Fair Value$13.31$15.74$18.07
Upside / Downside-70.43%-65.04%-59.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,821.002,612.162,418.782,239.712,073.911,920.371,977.98
Payout Ratio56.50%63.20%69.90%76.60%83.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,594.001,650.981,690.801,715.661,727.581,728.331,829.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-8.40%-7.40%-6.40%
Year 1 PV (M)1,526.111,542.771,559.43
Year 2 PV (M)1,444.691,476.411,508.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,355.061,399.931,445.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,261.271,317.261,375.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,166.381,231.451,299.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,757.7732,473.8134,265.60
Equity Value (M)37,511.2839,441.6241,453.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.391,007.391,007.39
Fair Value$37.24$39.15$41.15
Upside / Downside-17.27%-13.01%-8.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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