Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.66 - $73.50$58.22
Multi-Stage$36.02 - $39.31$37.63
Blended Fair Value$47.93
Current Price$191.49
Upside-74.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.42%16.19%0.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--111.14%-0.75%-0.25%1.01%1.28%5.12%8.80%30.65%22.54%14.52%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.21%0.34%0.25%0.40%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,221.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,839.6012,399.757,439.85
Cash Retained (M)98,221.0098,221.0098,221.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,839.60-12,399.75-7,439.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)78,381.4085,821.2590,781.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate12.96%12.96%12.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.66$58.22$73.50
Upside / Downside-76.16%-69.60%-61.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,198.00105,645.87112,512.85119,826.19127,614.89135,909.86139,987.15
Payout Ratio0.98%18.79%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)977.0019,848.6641,169.5165,178.2192,134.10122,318.87129,488.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.96%12.96%12.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,406.5817,571.5717,736.56
Year 2 PV (M)31,662.1232,265.2032,873.96
Year 3 PV (M)43,959.1245,221.0346,506.86
Year 4 PV (M)54,494.0556,589.7458,745.30
Year 5 PV (M)63,446.0266,510.4869,692.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)674,414.66706,989.14740,810.32
Equity Value (M)885,382.55925,147.16966,365.23
Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
Fair Value$36.02$37.63$39.31
Upside / Downside-81.19%-80.35%-79.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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