Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.04 - $217.34$141.36
Multi-Stage$70.84 - $77.37$74.05
Blended Fair Value$107.71
Current Price$140.78
Upside-23.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.60%0.00%1.050.820.630.430.330.260.200.150.000.00
YoY Growth--27.72%30.19%45.60%30.05%30.19%28.16%29.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.38%0.37%0.29%0.28%0.39%0.40%0.32%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,057.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)824.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.48132.1779.30
Cash Retained (M)824.76824.76824.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.48-132.17-79.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)613.28692.58745.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.26213.26213.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.883.253.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.883.253.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.04$141.36$217.34
Upside / Downside-30.36%0.41%54.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,057.381,126.111,199.301,277.261,360.281,448.701,492.16
Payout Ratio22.00%35.60%49.20%62.80%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.62400.89590.06802.121,039.251,303.831,380.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)361.79365.22368.65
Year 2 PV (M)480.56489.71498.95
Year 3 PV (M)589.54606.46623.71
Year 4 PV (M)689.32715.83743.10
Year 5 PV (M)780.45818.15857.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,206.4712,796.0513,408.19
Equity Value (M)15,108.1315,791.4216,499.88
Shares Outstanding (M)213.26213.26213.26
Fair Value$70.84$74.05$77.37
Upside / Downside-49.68%-47.40%-45.04%

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