Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT PINAGO UTAMA Tbk (PNGO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,035.27 - $8,878.02$6,665.86
Multi-Stage$8,027.81 - $8,822.70$8,417.62
Blended Fair Value$7,541.74
Current Price$2,420.00
Upside211.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.63%0.00%92.19130.00120.00102.0051.2070.1244.8064.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.08%8.33%17.65%99.22%-26.98%56.51%-30.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.69%8.97%9.09%6.87%4.95%22.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294,674.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62,700.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)231,974.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58,934.8436,834.2822,100.57
Cash Retained (M)231,974.22231,974.22231,974.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-58,934.84-36,834.28-22,100.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)173,039.38195,139.94209,873.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)781.25781.25781.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share221.49249.78268.64
LTM Dividend per Share80.2680.2680.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share221.49249.78268.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend301.75330.04348.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$5,035.27$6,665.86$8,878.02
Upside / Downside108.07%175.45%266.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294,674.22299,879.52305,176.76310,567.58316,053.62321,636.58331,285.67
Payout Ratio21.28%35.02%48.77%62.51%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62,700.00105,024.37148,824.46194,139.19241,008.42289,472.92306,439.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)97,366.5298,332.7899,299.04
Year 2 PV (M)127,912.64130,464.03133,040.62
Year 3 PV (M)154,693.46159,344.82164,088.49
Year 4 PV (M)178,037.10185,210.32192,598.14
Year 5 PV (M)198,246.63208,280.76218,717.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,515,472.775,794,634.856,084,987.91
Equity Value (M)6,271,729.126,576,267.566,892,731.34
Shares Outstanding (M)781.25781.25781.25
Fair Value$8,027.81$8,417.62$8,822.70
Upside / Downside231.73%247.84%264.57%

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